影響因素分析
一、有利因素
（一）政策支持
2016年12月，工業(yè)和信息化部正式發(fā)布了《智能制造發(fā)展規(guī)劃（2016-2020年）》?！兑?guī)劃》提出：2025年前，推進(jìn)智能制造實(shí)施“兩步走”戰(zhàn)略：第一步：到2020年，智能制造發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)和支撐能力明顯增強(qiáng)，傳統(tǒng)制造業(yè)重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域基本實(shí)現(xiàn)數(shù)字化制造，有條件、有基礎(chǔ)的重點(diǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)智能轉(zhuǎn)型取得明顯進(jìn)展；第二步，到2025年，智能制造支撐體系基本建立，重點(diǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)初步實(shí)現(xiàn)智能轉(zhuǎn)型。
The more intelligent manufacturing development foundation and the support, realize the basic digital manufacturing, the traditional manufacturing key areas about the basic conditions and key industries intelligent transformation obvious progress; The second step, by 2025, intelligent manufacturing support system basic establishment, key industries preliminary intelligent transformation.
同時，《規(guī)劃》提出了十個重點(diǎn)任務(wù)：一是加快智能制造裝備發(fā)展，二是加強(qiáng)關(guān)鍵共性技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，三是建設(shè)智能制造標(biāo)準(zhǔn)體系，四是構(gòu)筑工業(yè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)基礎(chǔ)，五是加大智能制造試點(diǎn)示范推廣力度，六是推動重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域智能轉(zhuǎn)型，七是促進(jìn)中小企業(yè)智能化改造，八是培育智能制造生態(tài)體系，九是推進(jìn)區(qū)域智能制造協(xié)同發(fā)展，十是打造智能制造人才隊(duì)伍。
Fifth, strengthen intelligent manufacturing pilot demonstration promotion, six is the key areas of intelligent transformation, intelligent control, seven is to promote small and medium enterprises eight is to foster ecological system of intelligent manufacturing, nine is promoting regional coordinated development of intelligent manufacturing, ten is to build intelligent manufacturing personnel
（二）發(fā)展?jié)摿Υ?br />
近幾年來，我國制造業(yè)面臨勞動力和原材料成本上升的雙重壓力，傳統(tǒng)層面的成本優(yōu)勢逐漸消失，制造業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型迫在眉睫。在這樣的環(huán)境下，智能制造的浪潮應(yīng)運(yùn)而生，成為產(chǎn)業(yè)重要的增長突破口。新一代信息技術(shù)與制造業(yè)深度融合，正在引發(fā)影響深遠(yuǎn)的產(chǎn)業(yè)變革，形成新的生產(chǎn)方式、產(chǎn)業(yè)形態(tài)、商業(yè)模式和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長點(diǎn)。
The new generation of information technology and manufacturing depth integration is causing far-reaching industrial changes, forming new modes of production, industrial forms, business models and economic growth points.
目前，我國已有部分地區(qū)表現(xiàn)卓著，成長為智能制造的前沿陣地。浙江省海寧市則是其中代表，作為長三角地區(qū)最具發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ某鞘兄唬谛乱淮畔⒓夹g(shù)和工業(yè)融合發(fā)展大勢中已具有一定的變革基礎(chǔ)。無論從地理區(qū)位、經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)，還是人居環(huán)境方面，都體現(xiàn)出卓越的優(yōu)勢和廣闊的發(fā)展前景。
Some parts of our country have been outstanding, growing into the forefront of intelligent manufacturing. Haining, zhejiang province, is one of representative, as one of the most potential for development in Yangtze river delta cities, in a new generation of information fusion technology and industrial development has a certain basis of change in trend. Both geographical location, economic foundation, and human settlements show excellent advantages and broad prospects for development.
（三）阿里云用人工智能開啟“新制造”
為制造業(yè)提供人工智能ET（人工智能系統(tǒng)），讓工廠的機(jī)器及制造出來的產(chǎn)品也具備ET大腦，通過公共云的普惠計(jì)算能力以及物聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)方案，協(xié)助制造業(yè)智能升級。這是阿里云ET在“新制造”領(lǐng)域的新動向，也是2016年12月15日于惠州收官的2016廣東省大數(shù)據(jù)開發(fā)者大會暨2016云棲大會廣東分會的一項(xiàng)重磅發(fā)布議題。
The more intelligent manufacturing development foundation and the support, realize the basic digital manufacturing, the traditional manufacturing key areas about the basic conditions and key industries intelligent transformation obvious progress; The second step, by 2025, intelligent manufacturing support system basic establishment, key industries preliminary intelligent transformation.
目前，阿里云正在搭建中國制造2025的架構(gòu)雛形，為企業(yè)提供云計(jì)算的基礎(chǔ)平臺?；谠朴?jì)算為社會帶來的強(qiáng)大計(jì)算能力，人工智能將為中國制造業(yè)帶來25%的生產(chǎn)效率提升，創(chuàng)造額外附加值6萬億。以云計(jì)算、大數(shù)據(jù)和人工智能為代表的工業(yè)4.0新技術(shù)將成為中國制造業(yè)提升效能的關(guān)鍵。
strengthen intelligent manufacturing pilot demonstration promotion, six is the key areas of intelligent transformation, intelligent control, seven is to promote small and medium enterprises eight is to foster ecological system of intelligent manufacturing, nine is promoting regional coordinated development of intelligent manufacturing, ten is to build intelligent manufacturing personnel
（四）制造標(biāo)準(zhǔn)體系逐漸完善
2016年8月，質(zhì)檢總局、國家標(biāo)準(zhǔn)委、工業(yè)和信息化部會同有關(guān)部門共同編制了《裝備制造業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化和質(zhì)量提升規(guī)劃》?！兑?guī)劃》中明確指出：到2020年，工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)、智能制造、綠色制造等標(biāo)準(zhǔn)體系基本完善，質(zhì)量安全標(biāo)準(zhǔn)與國際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)加快接軌，重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域國際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)轉(zhuǎn)化率力爭達(dá)到90%以上；到2025年，系統(tǒng)配套、服務(wù)產(chǎn)業(yè)跨界融合的裝備制造業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)體系基本健全，裝備制造業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和質(zhì)量的國際影響力大幅提升。
strengthen intelligent manufacturing pilot demonstration promotion, six is the key areas of intelligent transformation, intelligent control, seven is to promote small and medium enterprises eight is to foster ecological system of intelligent manufacturing, nine is promoting regional coordinated development of intelligent manufacturing, ten is to build intelligent manufacturing personnel
特別強(qiáng)調(diào)的是：該規(guī)劃圍繞新一代信息技術(shù)、高檔數(shù)控機(jī)床和機(jī)器人、航空航天裝備、海洋工程裝備及高技術(shù)船舶、先進(jìn)軌道交通裝備、節(jié)能與新能源汽車、電力裝備、農(nóng)業(yè)裝備、新材料、高性能醫(yī)療器械10大重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域，提出標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化和質(zhì)量提升要求。
Some parts of our country have been outstanding, growing into the forefront of intelligent manufacturing. Haining, zhejiang province, is one of representative, as one of the most potential for development in Yangtze river delta cities, in a new generation of information fusion technology and industrial development has a certain basis of change in trend. Both geographical location, economic foundation, and human settlements show excellent advantages and broad prospects for development.
二、不利因素
（一）非剛性的市場需求
盡管信息化、自動化、智能化的廣泛應(yīng)用，是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的長期主題，但智能裝備領(lǐng)域公司的最終業(yè)績表現(xiàn)呈現(xiàn)較大差異。智能裝備產(chǎn)業(yè)需要企業(yè)長期的科技投入，形成產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新能力，并為用戶所接受?？萍纪度霑钠髽I(yè)利潤，短期難以收效。產(chǎn)品研發(fā)成功，又將面對不確定的市場需求。這些需求通常是非剛性的，盡管智能裝備替代人工是大勢所趨。微觀企業(yè)經(jīng)營者的信心、預(yù)期通常難以擺脫宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，致使企業(yè)家決策順周期而非逆周期，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響加重，看不見的手作用有限。
每個有活力的智能裝備領(lǐng)域的企業(yè)都在尋找、發(fā)掘需求強(qiáng)勁、不受周期波動影響的剛性需求。面對需求，只有少數(shù)企業(yè)會憑借綜合競爭優(yōu)勢，脫穎而出，發(fā)展成為行業(yè)翹楚。即便如此，成功的企業(yè)同樣要經(jīng)歷大浪淘沙始見金的過程。
（二）成本加大
為進(jìn)行從普通制造向智能制造和工業(yè)4.0戰(zhàn)略的轉(zhuǎn)型升級，各公司會不斷加大研發(fā)投入，因此導(dǎo)致基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)和設(shè)備投資較大，研發(fā)支出、人工成本等費(fèi)用增長。研發(fā)和人工成本費(fèi)用的上升可能引致產(chǎn)品利潤率的降低，對行業(yè)經(jīng)營業(yè)績產(chǎn)生一定影響。
Some parts of our country have been outstanding, growing into the forefront of intelligent manufacturing. Haining, zhejiang province, is one of representative, as one of the most potential for development in Yangtze river delta cities, in a new generation of information fusion technology and industrial development has a certain basis of change in trend. Both geographical location, economic foundation, and human settlements show excellent advantages and broad prospects for development.
（三）產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模效應(yīng)有待增強(qiáng)
目前國內(nèi)的智能制造裝備產(chǎn)業(yè)整體規(guī)模還是偏小的，創(chuàng)新資源和產(chǎn)業(yè)資源分散于央企、校企，產(chǎn)業(yè)的體制機(jī)制不活，企業(yè)的市場開拓力不強(qiáng)，缺乏具有創(chuàng)新精神和國際競爭力的大企業(yè)集團(tuán)，目前的智能制造裝備行業(yè)對國內(nèi)工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的促進(jìn)作用亟待增強(qiáng)。
（四）整體創(chuàng)新能力有待提高
國內(nèi)智能制造裝備關(guān)鍵核心技術(shù)創(chuàng)新能力和高技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)化能力較薄弱，協(xié)同創(chuàng)新氛圍不濃，產(chǎn)學(xué)研合作缺乏系統(tǒng)性和持久性，“重模仿、輕創(chuàng)新，重引進(jìn)、輕開發(fā)”現(xiàn)象普遍，擁有自主知識產(chǎn)權(quán)和核心技術(shù)的產(chǎn)品少，關(guān)鍵技術(shù)及核心部件受制于國外，這將會使我國的智能制造裝備產(chǎn)業(yè)在國際競爭中處于下風(fēng)。
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