The "NAES Macroeconomic Situation Quarterly Analysis Meeting (2nd Quarter 2018)" jointly organized by the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Xinhua News Agency "Economic Information Daily" and the China Social Science Press was held in Beijing on the 3rd. The Financial and Economic Research Group report released at the analysis meeting predicts that GDP will increase by 6.7% in the second quarter of 2018 and the annual economic growth will be 6.6%. The report suggests that in the second half of the year, it is necessary to combine the structural reforms of the supply side with the continuous expansion of domestic demand to resolve the potential risks of the economy and enhance the potential for sustainable economic development.
The report believes that China is trade surplus has narrowed, which has a certain drag on GDP data. The data show that in 2017, the improvement of foreign trade was an important contribution to China is economic recovery. Net exports boosted GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points in the year, compared with a negative contribution of 1.1% in 2016. However, in the first quarter of 2018, net exports of goods and services drove GDP growth and turned negative, dragging GDP by 0.6 percentage points.
Wang Hongjun, deputy director and researcher of the Comprehensive Economic Strategy Research Department of the Financial and Economic Research Institute, said in a question to the reporter of the Economic Information Daily that China should focus on strengthening industrial transformation and upgrading, improve the position of China is products in the global industrial chain, and increase the added value of products. Increase export profits.
The manufacturing PMI declined in June compared to May, but it is still at 51.5%. At the same time, the non-manufacturing PMI and the construction industry PMI have even rebounded, indicating that the current overall economic environment is not affected by the negative factors of internal and external demand. Wang Hongyu said that with the deepening of structural reforms on the supply side, industrial production is stable and stable, industrial economic structure is optimized, efficiency is improved, employment is stable, and favorable factors supporting the stability of the industrial economy are increasing.
Regarding how to deal with the external pressures of the international economic situation and the current outstanding problems, the Task Force proposes to combine the structural reforms of the supply side and the continuous expansion of domestic demand in the second half of the year; unswervingly expand the reform and opening up and actively respond to Sino-US trade. Disputes; continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, increase tax cuts and fee reductions, speed up expenditures; maintain a stable and neutral monetary policy and ample liquidity; improve macro-prudential supervision policies, promote credit, stock market, bond market, foreign exchange market, property market healthy growth. Resolve potential risks of the economy and enhance the potential for sustainable economic development.
由中國社會(huì)科學(xué)院財(cái)經(jīng)戰(zhàn)略研究院、新華社《經(jīng)濟(jì)參考報(bào)》和中國社會(huì)科學(xué)出版社共同舉辦的“NAES宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢季度分析會(huì)（2018年2季度）”于3日在京舉行。分析會(huì)上發(fā)布的財(cái)經(jīng)院課題組報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)，2018年二季度GDP增長6.7%，全年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長6.6%。報(bào)告建議，下半年要把加快推進(jìn)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革與持續(xù)擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需結(jié)合起來，化解經(jīng)濟(jì)潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，增強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的潛力。
報(bào)告認(rèn)為，上半年我國經(jīng)濟(jì)供給側(cè)繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)中有進(jìn)態(tài)勢，但需求側(cè)如投資等部分宏觀指標(biāo)下降較多，經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期分歧加大。預(yù)計(jì)2018年二季度及上半年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長6.7%，比一季度略降0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；三季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長6.6%；四季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長回落至6.5%。預(yù)計(jì)全年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長6.6%。
報(bào)告認(rèn)為，我國貿(mào)易順差收窄，對GDP數(shù)據(jù)有一定拖累。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2017年，對外貿(mào)易的改善是中國經(jīng)濟(jì)回升的重要貢獻(xiàn)，當(dāng)年凈出口拉動(dòng)GDP增長0.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，相比2016年的負(fù)貢獻(xiàn)上升了1.1%。但2018年一季度，貨物和服務(wù)凈出口拉動(dòng)GDP增長又轉(zhuǎn)為負(fù)值，拖累GDP0.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
財(cái)經(jīng)院綜合經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略研究部副主任、研究員汪紅駒接受《經(jīng)濟(jì)參考報(bào)》記者提問時(shí)表示，下一步我國應(yīng)著力加強(qiáng)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級，提高我國產(chǎn)品在全球產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈中的位置，增加產(chǎn)品附加值，從而增加出口利潤。
報(bào)告指出，上半年制造業(yè)和非制造業(yè)PMI總體穩(wěn)定，都處于景氣區(qū)間。6月份，制造業(yè)PMI為51.5%，比上個(gè)月回落0.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，仍高于上半年均值0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；非制造業(yè)PMI為55.0%，比上個(gè)月上升0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，高于上半年均值0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，總體保持平穩(wěn)向好的發(fā)展勢頭。
6月份制造業(yè)PMI相較5月有所下滑，但仍在51.5%的水平。同時(shí)，非制造業(yè)PMI以及建筑業(yè)PMI甚至出現(xiàn)回升，表明當(dāng)前整體的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境受內(nèi)外需負(fù)面因素的拖累尚不明顯。”汪紅駒表示，隨著供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的深入推進(jìn)，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)穩(wěn)中向好，工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化、效益改善，就業(yè)穩(wěn)定，支撐工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)中向好的有利因素不斷增多。
對于如何應(yīng)對國際經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢的外部壓力和當(dāng)前面臨的突出問題，課題組建議，下半年要把加快推進(jìn)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革與持續(xù)擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需結(jié)合起來；堅(jiān)定不移擴(kuò)大改革開放，積極應(yīng)對中美貿(mào)易爭端；繼續(xù)實(shí)施積極的財(cái)政政策，加大減稅降費(fèi)力度，加快支出進(jìn)度；保持貨幣政策穩(wěn)健中性和流動(dòng)性合理充裕；完善宏觀審慎監(jiān)管政策，推動(dòng)信貸、股市、債市、匯市、樓市健康發(fā)展。化解經(jīng)濟(jì)潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，增強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的潛力。
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